Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 1.906125 2.011682 2.122161 2.246800 2.383973 2.530874 2.700806
2025-07-06 1.720078 1.862240 2.017562 2.201168 2.414016 2.655184 2.952319
2025-07-13 1.638638 1.806731 1.996204 2.228153 2.508094 2.840019 3.271258
2025-07-20 1.581921 1.769941 1.987318 2.261292 2.603549 3.025968 3.602153
2025-07-27 1.538146 1.742640 1.984289 2.296770 2.699458 3.215302 3.952614
2025-08-03 1.478648 1.691398 1.947092 2.284480 2.730255 3.319051 4.194753
2025-08-10 1.425874 1.644658 1.911511 2.269968 2.754342 3.412379 4.428520
2025-08-17 1.374813 1.596997 1.871433 2.245810 2.761766 3.480569 4.629478
2025-08-24 1.328662 1.553095 1.833444 2.221252 2.765440 3.541537 4.823476
2025-08-31 1.297204 1.526264 1.815782 2.222225 2.803696 3.654433 5.112309
2025-09-07 1.272651 1.507033 1.806746 2.233749 2.856724 3.792548 5.460023
2025-09-14 1.234070 1.467919 1.769403 2.203433 2.845608 3.828973 5.632863
2025-09-21 1.195165 1.427650 1.729690 2.168852 2.827425 3.854897 5.794873
2025-09-28 1.155497 1.385143 1.685430 2.125711 2.793581 3.852468 5.903138
2025-10-05 1.142703 1.377910 1.688820 2.151182 2.866449 4.032643 6.395546
2025-10-12 1.132731 1.373928 1.696232 2.182448 2.949897 4.238293 6.979447
2025-10-19 1.124042 1.371230 1.705074 2.215902 3.038675 4.462045 7.651855
2025-10-26 1.101518 1.348760 1.685001 2.204315 3.052079 4.548762 8.026647
2025-11-02 1.079564 1.326412 1.664273 2.190631 3.060795 4.626964 8.397185
2025-11-09 1.055961 1.301116 1.638457 2.167844 3.052402 4.671033 8.690172
2025-11-16 1.033373 1.276659 1.613097 2.144670 3.041856 4.709670 8.977729
2025-11-23 1.018908 1.263218 1.603315 2.145587 3.073333 4.835509 9.539809
2025-11-30 1.007959 1.254411 1.599966 2.156463 3.122935 5.003624 10.276609